The NYT has an article, Odds Are, They’ll Know ‘08 Winner, on online prediction markets. Intrade.com, a trading exchange based in Dublin, correctly forecast the outcome in all 50 states in the 2004 US presidential election?

[thanks to Tim Finin, blogger at UMBC]

Intrade now makes John McCain the favorite for the Republican nomination, followed by Rudy Giuliani. For the Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton has about a 50 percent chance of being the nominee, more than twice as much as anyone else.

Shares in Vice President Cheney becoming the 2008 GOP nominee are currently a bargain at $1.50 compared to $37.40 for John McCain. Shares in Cheney resigning by December 7, 2007 are selling at $27.00. This looks like much more fun than actually voting. But not all prediction markets are for fun or gambling. The oldest Internet prediction market is the Iowa Electronic Markets, operated by the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business for research and education.