Twitter mob predicts movie money
April 2nd, 2010

Twitter has been shown to very accurately predict how much money a movie will make on its opening weekend. The calculations are based on how many mentions the movie gets. Turns out the tweet mob is smart when it comes to movie popularity. Yahoo! News reports:

As reported by Fast Company, researchers at HP Labs have shown that the number of times a movie is mentioned on Twitter can be used as a solid predictor of how much money that movie will make in its first few weekends of release.

Their study analyzed nearly 3 million Twitter updates in which movies were mentioned over a course of 3 months. Twenty-four major releases were analyzed in all.

After the numbers were crunched — factoring in the date of the movie’s release and the number of theaters in which it was released — the Twitter method proved to have a 97.3 percent accuracy rate at predicting the opening weekend box office of the film. The previous champ, the Hollywood Stock Exchange, a “prediction market” in which users attempt to guess en masse what a movie will make, had only a 96.5 percent accuracy level.


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