There’s a new Future of the Internet II from Pew Internet & American Life Project that was just released this week. Howard Rheingold took part in the study and had a very strong opinion (which I’ll cover in this post) about the Future of the Internet (in 2020).

I was surprised, in some cases, with questions and some of the answers from this Pew Future of the Internet 2 study. Lee Odden of Top Rank Blog took issue with one of the findings of the study….

The whole idea of a sub-culture emerging that lives ‘off the net’ seems a bit sci fi to me. But then when I think about it, the few times I’ve taken internet-free vacations, it has been very refreshing. However, my business is very much tied to the internet, so there’s no off-network plans for me unless I change what I do for a living. Hmmmmmmm.

For me, the finding that

“Tech ‘refuseniks‘ will emerge as a cultural group characterized by their choice to live off the network. Some will do this as a benign way to limit information overload, while others will commit acts of violence and terror against technology-inspired change

to be a possible future for some people, but not for most. I don’t think it will be a large group - and no more shocking than some of the subgroups of our population that are sorta off the internet and power grid right now. Since this response exists now - it’s not hard to imagine it existing in 2020 about the Internet and connectivity to it.

Other findings:

A low-cost global network will be thriving and creating new opportunities in a ‘flattening’ world.

Humans will remain in charge of technology, even as more activity is automated and ’smart agents’ proliferate. However, a significant 42% of survey respondents were pessimistic about humans’ ability to control the technology in the future. This significant majority agreed that dangers and dependencies will grow beyond our ability to stay in charge of technology. This was one of the major surprises in the survey.

Virtual reality will be compelling enough to enhance worker productivity and also spawn new addiction problems.

Tech ‘refuseniks’ will emerge as a cultural group characterized by their choice to live off the network. Some will do this as a benign way to limit information overload, while others will commit acts of violence and terror against technology-inspired change.

People will wittingly and unwittingly disclose more about themselves, gaining some benefits in the process even as they lose some privacy.

English will be a universal language of global communications, but other languages will not be displaced. Indeed, many felt other languages such as Mandarin, would grow in prominence.

At the same time, there was strong dispute about those futuristic scenarios among notable numbers of 742 respondents to survey conducted by the Pew Internet & American Life Project and Elon University. Those who raised challenges believe that governments and corporations will not necessarily embrace policies that will allow the network to spread to under-served populations; that serious social inequalities will persist; and that ‘addiction’ is an inappropriate notion to attach to people’s interest in virtual environments.

The experts and analysts also split evenly on a central question of whether the world will be a better place in 2020 due to the greater transparency of people and institutions afforded by the internet: 46% agreed that the benefits of greater transparency of organizations and individuals would outweigh the privacy costs and 49% disagreed

You can read the entire report here as a PDF file. Also a Video Clip.

To the question at Virtual Reality is a Drain to some - and 56% of the respondents agreed.
Howard Rheingold said, to this question, “I love to read” does that make me a “reading addict”.

Howard was challenging the notion that Internet Life can be addictive.

Links: The Future of the Internet II, Top Rank Blog

There’s a new Future of the Internet II from Pew Internet & American Life Project that was just released this week. Howard Rheingold took part in the study and had a very strong opinion (which I’ll cover in this post) about the Future of the Internet (in 2020).
I was surprised, in some cases, with [...]